Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
